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Outlook Asia Pasifik

Pemulihan ekonomi global menghadapi ketidakpastian. Sektor manufaktur dan perdagangan global melambat tajam di tahun 2012 didorong oleh pelemahan ekonomi negara maju dan berdampak spillover ke emerging market. Prediksi pertumbuhan global lebih lambat berdasarkan asumsi bahwa eurozone akan secara gradual akan melonggarkan (easing) kondisi finansialnya, serta kemungkinan AS akan menghindari kebijakan ‘fiscal cliff’. Meskipun belum ada kemajuan signifikan namun beberapa indikator utama menunjukkan kemajuan merespon kebijakan-kebijakan di Eropa dan easing yang dilakukan oleh The Fed. Fundamental ekonomi EM tetap kuat, tingginya employment dan solidnya permintaan domestik dibantu oleh kebijakan pelonggaran makro dapat mendorong demand domestik di EM. Meskipun demikian tingkat pertumbuhan diproyeksikan belum akan kembali ke level pra krisis

Madoff dan Piramida Ponzi

Berita yang sangat spektakuler yang saat ini sedang benar-benar saya lihat di Bloomberg TV adalah jatuhnya hukuman terhadap Madoff yang telah melakukan apa yang dapat disebut sebagai penipuan terbesar di dunia. Jaksa Federal AS telah menjatuhi hukuman sebesar 150 tahun penjara dan denda sebesar 25 juta dolar kepadanya atas skema Ponzi yang telah dilakukannya. Apa sebenarnya yang terjadi dengan skema tersebut? Ikuti tautan berikut. Lawrence Bernard "Bernie" Madoff, pria kelahiran 29 April 1938 adalah mantan direktur eksekutif NASDAQ yang dinyatakan bersalah atas 11 tuntutan pidana, diantaranya adalah penipuan terhadap ribuan investor, terbukti melakukan melakukan sebuah skema Ponzi yang merupakan penipuan terbesar yang pernah dilakukan oleh satu orang. Jaksa Federal AS telah memperkirakan kerugian investor yang diderita hampir sebesar US$65 miliar. Tanggal 29 Juni 2009 dia divonis hukuman maksimum 150 tahun penjara dan denda sebesar US$25 miliar. Awal mulanya pada tahun 1960 M...

Rencana Penerapan Vertical Unbundling Strategy oleh Telstra

Kabar dari Australia mengatakan bahwa Australian Competition and Consumer Protection (ACCC) telah mengindikasikan keinginannya untuk memecah perusahaan telekomunikasi yang dominan di Australia yaitu Telstra ke dalam beberapa unit bisnis. Pemecahan unit usaha tersebut terkait dengan rencana pemerintah untuk menggelontorkan dana sebesar USD35,13 miliar untuk pembangunan jaringan pita lebar nasional (National Broadband Network/NBN) di Australia. Vertical unbundling ini diperkirakan oleh ACCC akan lebih ekstrim dari yang dilakukan oleh Telecom Corp. yang merupakan pelaku usaha telekomunikasi Selandia Baru. Vertical unbundling yang dilakukan oleh Telecom Cop. pada tahun 2007 hanya menghasilkan tiga divisi berbeda yaitu wholesale, retail, dan network. Sedangkan yang akan dilakukan oleh Telstra adalah memecah perusahaan menjadi tiga perusahaan. Namun demikian menurut Telstra tidak perlu ada pemecahan karena perusahaan masih tetap dapat beroperasi meskipun ada redundancy keberadaan jaringan. S...

Obama Speech vs His Predecessors's

Have you ever tried to open THIS site? There are interesting tools to summarize what word most used at speech. Not only can be used for speech but I do some comparation between what word most used in Barack Obama's inaugural speech yesterday and his several predecessor's on their inaugural ceremony. Here are the result of Obama's and Bush Jr.'s speech Obama's Speech Bush's Speech I do made comparison between Clinton 2nd inauguration and even Lincoln's Clinton's Lincoln's Please, make your conclusion ... :D

Obama's Inaugural Remarks

Here are full text of inaugural speech delivered by H.E. US President Barack Hussein Obama Jr. on Capitol Hill, Washington DC, 20 January 2009; 12.00PM sharp Jakarta time and 12.00AM Washington DC time. I watched inauguration ceremony on MetroTV just until 1 A.M. Jakarta time because I was too sleepy. (^^)v The video of inaugural ceremony could be reached here. Here the full the text of his remarks My fellow citizens: I stand here today humbled by the task before us, grateful for the trust you have bestowed, mindful of the sacrifices borne by our ancestors. I thank President Bush for his service to our nation, as well as the generosity and cooperation he has shown throughout this transition. Forty-four Americans have now taken the presidential oath. The words have been spoken during rising tides of prosperity and the still waters of peace. Yet, every so often the oath is taken amidst gathering clouds and raging storms. At these moments, America has carried on not simply because of the...

For ASEAN Dispute Settlement Body?

I've quite surprised when my colleague from Ministry of Trade told me last night that ASEAN would sounds ASEAN Dispute Settlement Body, similar with WTO's. So, what's the implication to Indonesian Anti Monopoly Law No. 5/1999? Although it still only 'issue' but i am sure there are some implications to Indonesian Fair Competition Authority. Nowadays, if there are some dispute regarding antitrust cases, refer to its jurisdiction rules. But if ASEAN DSB established, if there some dispute regarding antitrust case, DSB could review each law of its member and DSB has authority to revoke the Law although the Decision from Supreme Court could not be revoked or canceled. I am sure its far more dangerous if Indonesia does not have strong bargaining position in ASEAN forum.

Lessons Learned from APEC Training Program

Few days ago, APEC in coorporation with Japan Fair Trade Commission (JFTC) and Komisi Pengawas Persaingan Usaha (KPPU) helds APEC Training on Competition Policy. This event took place in Sanur Paradise Hotel & Resort, Bali and attended by representatives of several competition policy agency from Rusia, Japan, Mexico, Chile, Peru, Taiwan, Singapore, China, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and Chinese Taipei. Here are discussion pointer: there are two kind of definition regarding industrial policy which are narrow and broad definition. the narrow definition of industrial policy is policy to promote the economic interests of a particular domestic industry or firm, SOE or private, by providing protection from competition, preferential access to factors of production or to a market for its product or services. otherwise, the broad definition is all the previous policies but to include wider social or infrastructure investment to promote economic development and the welfare of a firm or indu...

Do Trade Helps or Kills

menarik ulasan mas Ferizal Ramli di milis tetangga mengenai siapa yang akan hancur akibat adanya krisis global belakangan ini. Tidak dipungkiri bahwa akibat dari semakin terintegrasinya sistem keuangan global akan menyebabkan dampak contagion dari krisis di suatu negara akan berpengaruh cukup besar bagi negara lain apalagi jika tingkat ketergantungan ekonomi terhadap negara tersebut tinggi. Yah, kapitalisme mereka adalah kapitalisme menggelembung. Sekarang gelembung nanah itu pecah maka mereka ikut rontok lah. UK dalam banyak hal mirip Amrik meskipun ndak sepenuhnya sama. UK masih pake Keynes. Jadi, UK juga ikut rontok meskipun ndak separah Amrik. Tapi karena resources UK tidak sekuat Amrik maka tetap saja ekonomi UK jebol parah... Ada poin penting yang dilontarkan mas Ferizal lagi Hanya jika dampak sekundernya, iya Uni Eropa terkena. Kebanyakan negara Uni Eropa itu ekonominya mengandalkan kekuatan ekspor. Nah, akibat krisis keuangan ini daya beli dunia turun. Akibatnya, pemasukan eksp...

And The Pundit Goes to: Paul Krugman

Congratulations to Paul Krugman the Nobel Laureates 2008 in Economics. His theory about international trade and economic geography has led to award and appreciation. I had wrote similar topic on my unpublished undergraduate thesis several years ago which entitled, "Indonesian Export Non-Oil and Gas Analysis: Panel Data Gravity Model Approach, 2000 - 2004". Patterns of trade and location have always been key issues in the economic debate. What are the effects of free trade and globalization? What are the driving forces behind worldwide urbanization? Paul Krugman has formulated a new theory to answer these questions. He has thereby integrated the previously disparate research fields of international trade and economic geography. Krugman's approach is based on the premise that many goods and services can be produced more cheaply in long series, a concept generally known as economies of scale. Meanwhile, consumers demand a varied supply of goods. As a result, small-sca...